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Commonwealth Bank Forecasts Perth House Prices to Fall Nearly 20 Per Cent
Commonwealth Bank forecasts Perth house prices to fall nearly 20 per cent in record downturn
Key points
- Brisbane and Perth have already exceeded the 8 per cent peak-to-trough declines CBA forecast in September.
- Sales over the past three months were 23 per cent lower than a year earlier and 18 per cent below the five-year average.
- CBA expects prices to be down 7 per cent in 2026 and 4 per cent next year.
Why it matters. Even after the expected falls, prices would still leave property well above long-term levels, according to economist Trent Saunders.
Commonwealth Bank economists on Tuesday forecast Perth house prices to fall nearly 20 per cent, or 18 per cent from their April peak, which they say would be the largest downturn on record. Senior economist Trent Saunders said Brisbane and Perth had already exceeded the 8 per cent peak-to-trough declines the bank forecast in September, citing Cotality research. The bank expects national prices to fall 14 per cent, with stabilisation not arriving until the second half of 2027.
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Commonwealth Bank Forecasts Perth House Prices to Fall Nearly 20 Per Cent
Economists at the Commonwealth Bank revised their housing forecasts on Tuesday, expecting national property prices to fall 14 per cent. They expect capital city prices to fall 15 per cent, which would be the worst outcome in more than four decades. Perth is forecast to fall nearly 20 per cent, which the economists describe as the largest downturn on record for the city. Senior economist Trent Saunders said the outlook differs across markets, including Sydney. Successive interest rate rises and changes to Labor's property tax settings are cited as drivers of the correction.