business
RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85 per cent and revises growth and inflation forecasts
RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85 per cent, an 18-year high, and revises growth and inflation forecasts.
Key points
- The cash rate rise to 4.85 per cent is an 18-year high for the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- The bank's 75-page quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy contains its revised figures.
- Governor Michele Bullock says people will feel it is a recession because they feel poorer.
Why it matters. Bullock's comments suggest households may feel worse off, even though the bank is not forecasting a technical recession for the overall economy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate to 4.85 per cent, an 18-year high, and set out its revised figures in a 75-page quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Governor Michele Bullock said people will feel it is a recession because they feel poorer, even though the bank is not forecasting a technical recession for the overall economy. The statement's numbers, which the article describes as ugly, expose how fragile the economy is.
Latest updates
RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85 per cent and revises growth and inflation forecasts
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised its cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest level in 18 years. Its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy revises forecasts for economic growth, inflation and unemployment. Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the rate rise would make people feel as though the economy is in recession because they feel poorer. The 75-page statement is the central bank's detailed assessment of the economy. The reporting describes the outlook as fragile, though it does not give the full revised figures in the available text.
Bond markets price over 80% chance of a Reserve Bank rate hike on Tuesday
Bond markets are pricing a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike at its meeting on Tuesday at greater than 80 per cent. The expectation follows stronger-than-expected inflation in the September quarter and hawkish comments from the central bank. The treasurer said "there is more work to be done" to tighten the government's budget belt. Labor is facing accusations that out-of-control spending is fuelling inflation, which it has rejected. Borrowers have been told interest rates might not begin coming down until the end of 2027, and rates are expected to stay high for an extended period.
Markets Expect RBA to Lift Cash Rate to 4.85% on Tuesday Amid Recession Fears
Markets and most economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the official interest rate to 4.85 per cent on Tuesday afternoon. Some commentators have warned the increase could drive Australia into recession. They argue it could leave tens of thousands of people out of work. The warnings add pressure on Treasurer Jim Chalmers to cut deeper into government spending. The RBA's decision will be closely watched for its effect on household budgets and the broader economy.
Markets Expect RBA Rate Rise on Tuesday as Underlying Inflation Stays High
Bond markets and most economists have swung behind a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on Tuesday. The decision follows hot inflation figures and hawkish commentary from governor Michele Bullock the previous week. In annualised terms, the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation was 3.7 per cent. That is the 20th consecutive quarter that underlying inflation has sat above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent target band. A Middle East oil shock and rising prices have added to the pressure.



