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Low birth rates were emptying public schools. ICE deportations are now making it worse
ICE deportations are worsening public school enrollment declines already driven by low birth rates, districts say
Key points
- LAUSD, the second largest US district, lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades.
- US Census data show the under-18 population began falling nationwide after 2010, dropping by roughly 2.1 million through 2025.
- Texas classroom enrollment fell by more than 76,000 students statewide last year, mostly among Hispanic kids.
Why it matters. Districts such as Los Angeles say school campuses will likely have to close as enrollment falls, with immigration enforcement compounding the demographic decline.
Kelly Gonez, a Los Angeles Unified School District board member, says enrollment declines worsened after ICE raids escalated in the city in 2025. Federal researchers project enrollment will decline by at least another 2 million students by 2030, a 7% national drop, based on data gathered before the crackdown began. Stanford economist Thomas Dee found student daily absences spiked more than 20% in California's Central Valley after raids in 2025.
Latest updates
Low birth rates were emptying public schools. ICE deportations are now making it worse
School enrollment was already expected to plunge by 2 million kids by 2030. Education experts say deporting immigrant families, many with school-age children, is making the crisis worse. Kelly Gonez, a longtime school board member in the Los Angeles Unified School District, says public school enrollment declines worsened after ICE raids escalated in the city in 2025. District officials say low birth rates and the loss of immigrant children in classrooms mean school campuses will likely have to close. Carlos Jaramillo for NPR hide caption Carlos Jaramillo for NPR Catch up on what you missed with our Education newsletter, sent weekly. LOS ANGELES — Long before the Trump administration started deporting hundreds of thousands of immigrants, many with school-age children, public schools nationwide faced a massive and accelerating drop in student enrollment caused mostly by shrinking families. "Birth rates here in Los Angeles County have been declining for decades, which means fewer children enrolled in our schools," said Kelly Gonez, a board member in the LA Unified School District (LAUSD), the second largest in the country, which lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades. LA isn't alone. The population of children under age 18 began to fall nationwide after 2010, according to U.S. Census data , dropping by roughly 2.1 million kids through 2025 . With public schools .